INDONESIA COUNTRY REPORT

INDONESIA
COUNTRY REPORT

TASLIMAN
AEA 977051

ASIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD ENGINEERING DIVISION
1997

CONTENTS

I. INTRODUCTION ………………………………… 1

II. CURRENT SITUATION OF AGRICULTURE IN INDONESIA ….. 3

1. Area Classification and Utilization ……………. 3
2. Population in Agriculture …………………….. 3
3. Agricultural Machinery ……………………….. 4

a. Main Machinery ………………………….. 4

1) Animal Drawn Machinery ………………. 4
2) Tractor Drawn Machinery ……………… 5
3) Stationary power operated machine in Agriculture ………………………… 7

b. Other Machinery …………………………. 8

4. Power Available for Agriculture ……………….. 9

III. POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION IN INDONESIA …… 10

1. Population of Indonesia for Next 25 Years ………. 10
2. Food Production ……………………………… 10
3. Food Production by Using Traditional Methods ……. 12
4. Possibilities of Increasing Food Production …….. 14

a. Opening new land ………………………… 14

b. Increasing the cropping intensity …………. 14

1) Increasing the number of cropping per year 15
2) Increasing the yield per crop ………… 15
5. Estimated Maximum Agricultural Production Potential by Using The Best Available Technology …………….. 15

IV. FUTURE PLANS FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS ……………. 18

1. Plan-1: The same percentage of People Working in Agriculture, Preserving the same overall standard of Live …………………….. 18

2. Plan-2: To Provide the Increased Food Production Required with a Smaller Percentage of People Working in Agriculture. Thus Freeing People to Work in Other Sectors of The Economy … 19

3. Agricultural Inputs Requirement for Each Plan …… 20

4. Changes to be Required for each plan to succed ….. 25

I. INTRODUCTION

Geographically, Indonesia is the world’s largest archipelago, consisting of 13,667 islands – some 6,000 inhabited – spread out over a total land area of more than 1 .9 million square kilometers. It extends for more than 4,800 km from east to west and 2,000 km north south. By land area, it ranks fifteenth in the world, just behind Mexico and ahead of Libya, Indonesia is strategically-located between the Southeast Asian peninsula and the Australian continent. It straddles important commercial trading routes between East Asia and Europe, the Middle East, and the Indian sub-continent.

Indonesia’s climate is tropical. Seasons are divided into a dry (April to September) and rainy season (October to March). Indonesia is not prone to the devastating typhoons that regularly pay visit to some of its Southeast Asian neighbours.

Indonesia, which is home to about 194 754 800 people, is the world’s number four – by population – after China, India and the US. Annual population growth rate is 1.7 percent. It is expected that by year 2000, the populace would number about 211.9 million.

The age structure is very young, with over 63 percent below the age of 30. Life expectancy is 63 years.

Java, with less than seven percent of the nation’s land mass, is home to more than three-fifths of the population. Efforts to correct this imbalance are being done through a voluntary transmigration program. Other islands of major economic importance (aside from Java) are Sumatra, Ball, Sulawesi and Kalimantan. Urbanization levels are up, with urban population pegged at 33 percent of the total. Major cities which have more than one million in population are : Jakarta (9.16 million), Surabaya (2.8 million), Bandung (2.8 million), Medan (1.8 million), Palembang (1.2 million) and Semarang (1.4 million).

Indonesia is one of the most heavily forested Asian nations, with 65 percent forest coverage. Indonesia is home to the world’s largest tropical rainforests outside Brazil. It is also the largest exporter of plywood and rattan.

Indonesia has vast natural resources, with estimated oil reserves of 1 1 billion barrels, as well as considerable reserves of metallic minerals. It is the world’s third largest producer of tin. Commercial crops – rubber, coconut, rice, sugarcane, tea and coffee – are also grown. Indonesia exports large quantities of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), of which it is the world’s largest exporter, providing 38 percent of total global supply. The country, a member of the OPEC, produces 80 percent of Southeast Asia’s oil and is the world’s 14th largest oil producer.

However, since the mid-1980s, the government has been expanding non-oil exports to reduce reliance on oil and gas receipts. Non-oil exports now amount to some USS 15.7 billion.

The 1994 total exports were estimated at USS 40,763 billion, whilst total imports were USS32.796 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of USS7.06 billion. GDP growth in early 1994 was 7.34 percent or achieving USS 884 per ca pita.The government has also succeeded in keeping Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases to below 10 percent in 1994.

II. CURRENT SITUATION OF AGRICULTURE IN INDONESIA

2.1 Area Classification and Utilization.

Total land area in Indonesia was about 181 157 000 ha in 1994. from this total land area, 41 971 000 ha was agricultural area, where about 17 126 000 ha of it was arable land and about 13 045 000 ha was permanent crops. The main crop of Indonesia is paddy. At 1995, paddy field occupied about 11 438 764 ha area of land.

2.2 Population in Agriculture.

In 1995, total population of Indonesia was 194 754 000. Central bureau of Statistics of Indonesia reported that in 1981, the total economically active population over 10 years old which engaged in agriculture were about 58%. In 1989 the percentage was 54%.

Table 2.1 Population 10 Years of Age and Over Who Worked by Main Industry 1980, 1985, and 1995

Main Industry 1980 1985 1990 1995
Agriculture, Forestry, Hunting and Fishery

28,834,041

(55.93)

34,141,809

(54.66)

35,747,447

(49.95)

35,233,270

(43.98)

Mining and Quarrying 387,251

(0.75)

415,512

(0.67)

712,417

(1.00)

643,332

(0.80)

Manufacturing Industry 4,680,051

(9.08)

5,795,919

(9.28)

8,177,429

(11.43)

10,127,047

(12.64)

Electricity, Gas, and Water

66,089

(0.13

69,715

(0.11)

140,264

(0.20)

216,128

(0.27)

Construction 1,657,148

(3.21)

2,095,577

(3.36)

2,927,025

(4.09)

3,768,080

(4.7 0)

Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Restaurant and Hotels 6,678,952

(12.96

9,345,210

(14.96)

10,540,315

(14.73)

13,883,682

(17.33)

Transportation, Storage, and Communications 1,468,19

(2.85)

1,958,333

(3.14)

2,618,058

(3.66)

3,458,155

(4.32)

Financing, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Service 302,345

(0.59)

250,481

(0.40)

682,548

(0.95)

658,497

(0.82)

Community, Social, and Personal Services 7,144,523

(13.86)

8,317,285

(13.32)

9,344,991

(13.06)

12,121,869

(15.13)

Other 21,619

(0.04)

8,355

(0.01)

43,019

(0.06)

Not Stated 312,684

(0.61)

58,942

(0.09)

636,404

(0.89)

Total 51,553,221

(100.00)

62,457,138

(100.00)

71,569,971

(100.00)

80,110,060

(100.00)

Source: Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), 1996.

2.3 Agricultural Machinery

2.3.1 Main Machinery

2.3.1.1 Animal Drawn Machinery.

a. Moldboard plow, drawn by a couple of carabaos.
b. Spike tooth harrow, drawn by a couple of carabaos.
c. Moldboard plow, drawn by a couple of cows.

For all the implements, the main structure is made of wood. The beam stretches from the side of carabao’s / cow’s head to some distances after the tail, where the bottom to be drawn on the ground.

For all the implement, the operator walks behind them, handle a rope to control the animal’s direction and a whip for agitating the animals. In the cases of plows, the operator handles the extension of the plow beam that stretched almost upright, slightly inclined backward (I do not know what is the angle of this inclination), to control the plowing depth (by change beam inclination of the beam, because it can move at a narrow range of angle), thus controlling the load of pull must be exerted by the drawer.

The carabao plow and the cow plow are almost similar one and the other, except that cow plows are leaner (smaller) in most of their parts. And there are some differences on the plow bottom shape design, because the carabao plow is used on wetland area (flooded paddy field), while cow plow is used on dry condition (used to prepare paddy field too, but before the field be flooded, the land may be wetted, but not flooded).

The bottoms of the plows are made from wood, except the share and the moldboard that are made from steel sheet to be curved, and bolted to the wood bottom.

Spike tooth harrow is used for secondary tillage some days after plowing with carabao mold board plow.

All the parts of this harrow are made from wood (including fastener pins and the teeth).

Operator walks behind the implement and some times sits on the harrow beam to add extra downward load or simply to rest. But it is dependent on the soil condition. When the soil is not too hard and not too loose, he can ride the implement, otherway he can only walk behind.

Those implements mentioned above are still in use at the present time, but, step by step, are being shoved aside by the spread of power tillers.

2.3.1.2 Tractor Drawn Machinery.

Commonly Used Tractor Drawn Implements in Indonesia can be divided into 2 main categories:

a) Implements used on small farms
b) Implements used on plantation companies.
a) Implements used on small farms.

There are 3 implements that are most commonly used on small farms in Indonesia:

i) Rotary Tiller
ii) Moldboard plow – One way
iii) Reversible slat moldboard plow.

All of those implements are drawn by hand tractors and are used on small farm that mostly wetland farm.

i) Rotary Tiller.

They are used for secondary tillage operation, but frequently, there are only one tillage operation using rotary tiller, especially on the soft mud wetland, because this operation have given enough condition for the seedbed.

ii) Moldboard plow, one way

They are used for primary tillage, and then some days after it, second operation conducted by rotary tiller, or in some cases by manual operation. This plow has only one bottom, all made from steel. The plow is of turning right ones.

iii) Slat moldboard plow.

For areas with sticky soils, this type of implement is the most suitable. It consists one bottom plow with a mean to change the direction of turning. It done manually by changing the angle of plow face. The shape the bottom is symmetrical and it connected to the the gang by a hinged connection.

b) Implements used on plantation companies.

On such companies, there are big tractors to draw many kinds of agricultural implements. The biggest number of plantations that utilize many agricultural implements are sugar cane plantations. There are some rice and cotton plantations but only a few in number. The other plantations such as for tobacco, rubber, cacao, coffee, or tea production are not so mechanized in Indonesia.

The most common implements used on sugar cane plantation are:

i) Mold board plow
ii) Disk plow
iii) Rotary tiller
iv) Disk harrow
v) Subsoiler
vi) Lister

There are some combine sugar cane harvesters, but they only used at some plantations.

i) Moldboard plow

Moldboard plows used on sugar cane plantation usually consist of 4 bottoms, one way, and of turning right.

ii) Disk plow

Disk plows used on sugar cane plantation usually consist of 4 bottoms, standard disk plow. There are some cutaway disk plows used as well as regular disk plow.

iii) Rotary tiller.

Rotary tillers are usually used for chopping soil with a lot of trash on its surface, especially after intermittent plant. (For soil conservation purpose, it is usual to plant another crop or plant after a certain period of sugar cane planting).

iv) Disk harrow

It is used for secondary tillage operation. The most common type is offset disk harrow. Cutaway disk harrows sometimes are used for land preparation after intermittent plant.

v) Ridger / Lister

This implement is especially useful on sugar cane plantations, because sugar cane needs to be planted in furrows, and listers are used to make the furrow. There are two main types of ridger, double disk and double wing. Double-wing type of ridger consists of two surfaces resembles moldboard plow surfaces that be coupled together back-to-back so it will make turn to both directions. Usually an implement consists of two bottoms of double wing ridger. A double-disk lister bottom consists of two disks placed back-to-back, and has an effect as same as of a double-wing.

2.3.1.3 Stationary power operated machine in Agriculture

The most important stationary power operated agricultural machines are water pump and rice mill. Some paddy threshers are power operated, but the more number are manual operated (pedal thresher or hand rotated).

a) Water pump

Water pumps use diesel engine as their power sources. They are of centrifugal types.

b) Rice mill

The common type of rice milling services are owned by small businesses (very small), that scattered in most of villages in Indonesia. Diesel engines are used as the power sources. Usually they have two type of machines:

i) Rubber roll for first husking operation.
ii) Engelberg for the second (final) operation.

2.3.2 Other Machinery.

The other common machinery used on agricultural work are hand sprayer, knapsack sprayer, knapsack power sprayer, power sprayer, swing fog machine, rat fumigator, mechanical paddy dryer, paddy cleaner.

Table 2.2 Number of agricultural machinery (1989)

No. Type of Machine Total Number
1. Power tiller 20 541
2. 4-wheel tractor:
a. Mini tractor (<15HP)

b.Small tractor (15-24.9HP)

c. Medium tractor (25-39.9 HP)

d. Big tractor (>40HP)

2 740

796

303

1051

3. Hand sprayer 858 357
4. Knapsack motor sprayer 9 361
5. Power sprayer 2 063
6. Swing fog 382
7. Rat fumigator 85 976
8. Paddy tresher 126 539
9. Paddy dryer 3 297
10. Paddy cleaner 34 457
11. Rice polisher 10 912
12. Rice milling unit 61 652
13. Huller 9 465
14. Engelberg 4 319
15. Irrigation Pump (1986) 12 364

2.4 Power Available for Agriculture.

Table 2.3 Power available for agriculture

No Source Of Power

Total Number

Power / Unit (Kw)

Power Available (Kw)

1 Human power 86361300 0.075 6477097.50
2 Cow 725712 0.375 272142.00
3 Buffalo 188841 0.375 70815.37
4 Horse 8311 0.375 3116.62
5 Power tiller 20541 11.250 231086.25
6 Mini tractor 2740 11.250 30825.00
7 Small tractor 796 15.000 11940.00
8 Medium tractor 303 24.372 7384.72
9 Big tractor 1051 48.750 51236.25
10 Knapsack sprayer 9361 2.625 24572.62
11 Power sprayer 2063 2.250 4641.75
12 Swing fog 382 2.625 1002.75
13 Paddy thresher 126539 4.875 616877.62
14 Paddy dryer 3297 4.500 14836.50
15 Paddy cleaner 34457 4.875 167977.87
16 Rice polisher 10912 8.625 94116.00
17 Rice milling unit 61652 16.500 1017258.00
18 Huller 9465 6.375 60339.37
19 Engelberg 4319 9.000 38871.00
20 Irrigation pump 12364 9.750 120549.00
TOTAL POWER 9316686.19

Power available per hectare

= 9 316 686.19 / 41 971 000
= 0.221979 kW / Ha.

Note :

Number of human power = Labor Force = 56. 62 % of Total population of Indonesia.

III. POPULATION AND FOOD PRODUCTION IN INDONESIA

3.1 Population of Indonesia for Next 25 Years.

In 1995, total population of Indonesia was 194 754 800. With annual growth rate of 1.7 %, it is expected that by next 25 years, the population would be

=(1.017)25 x 194 754 800
= 1.524 x 194 754 800
= 296 832 871.

Table 3.1 Estimation of population of Indonesia from 1995 to 2020.

Year Population

(1.7 % growth rate)

1995 194 754 800
2000 211 881 449
2005 230 514208
2010 250 785 524
2015 272 839 490
2020 296 832 871

3.2 Food Production

Production of Paddy in Indonesia from 1985 to 1995 can be seen in table 3.2 below.

Table 3.2 Harvested Area, Yield Rate and Production of Paddy in Indonesia

Year Harvested Area (Ha) Yield Rate

(Qt/Ha)

Production

(Ton)

1985*) 9,902,213 39.42 39,033,945
1986*) 9,708,502 39.77 39,726,761
1987 9,922,594 40.39 40,078,195
1988 10,138,155 41.11 41,676,170
1989 10,531,207 42.47 44,725,582
1990 10,502,357 43.02 45,178,751
1991 10,281,519 43.46 44,688,247
1992 11,103,317 43.45 48,240,009
1993 11,012,776 43.75 48,181,087
1994 10,733,830 43.45 46,641,524
1995 11,438,764 43.49 49,744,140

*) excluding Timor Timur

Source : Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), 1996

The production of secondary Food crops from 19845 to 1995 listed as follow.

Table 3.3 Production of Secondary Food Crops (Thousand ton)

Year Maize Cassava Sweet Potatoes Peanuts Soybeans
1985 4330 14057 2161 528 870
1986 5920 13312 2091 642 1227
1987 5156 14356 2013 533 1161
1988 6652 15471 2159 589 1270
1989 6193 17117 2224 620 1315
1990 6734 15830 1971 651 1487
1991 6256 15954 2039 652 1555
1992 7995 16516 2171 739 1870
1993 6460 17285 2088 639 1709
1994 6869 15729 1845 632 1565
1995 8246 15441 2171 760 1680

Source : Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), 1996

3.3 Food Production by Using Traditional Methods.

By the term of traditional methods, it is assumed that there is no utilization of mechanical power nor irrigation infrastructures and no fertilizer nor pesticides.

By using traditional methods, paddy harvesting only can be done once a year. Assume that he average yield is 2.051 ton/ha, which is the lowest yield rate by province in Indonesia at 1995 (Central Kalimantan Province).

With total area harvested in 1995 = 11 436 764 ha (Table 3.1), the production in 1995 with this yield rate will only = 2.051 ton/ha x 11 438 764

= 23 460 905 ton,

that is approximate the half of the actual annual production.

If we assume that he annual growth of area of paddy harvested for the next 25 year maintained the same value as that of from 1985 to 1995, than we can predict the paddy production for the next 25 years.

The increase of paddy harvested area from 1985 to 1995

= 11 438 764 / 9 902 213
= 1.15517

The annual growth can be calculated from the equation

(1 + x)10 = 1.15517
log (1 + x)10 = log 1.15517
10 log (1 + x) = log 1.15517
log (1 + x) = log 1.15517 / 10
= 0.0062647

(1 + x) = 100.00662647

= 1.0145

x = 0.0145

= 1.45 %

Area of paddy harvested for next 25 years will

= (1.0145) 25 x 11 438 764
= 1.434 x 11 438 764
= 16 393 828 ha.

And the production od paddy by this time will

= 2.051 ton/ha x 16 393 828 ha
= 33 623 742 ton.

If we make an assumption that the main food of the population is only rice, the annual rice demand is equal with total population times energy requirement per capita per year divided by the caloric content per kg rice.

Assume that food demand equal 146 kg of paddy per head per year. Then the increasing of demand and supply of paddy from 1995 to 2020 is listed in Table 3.4 below.

Table 3.4 Estimation of paddy production and demand from 1995 to 2020 using traditional methods.

Year Population
(1.7 % growth rate)
Rice demand
(x 1000 ton)
Production
(1.45 % growth)
(x 1000 ton)
1995 194 754 800 28 434.20 23 460.90
2000 211 881 449 30 934.69 25 211.87
2005 230 514 208 33 655.07 27 093.51
2010 250 785 524 36 614.69 29 115.59
2015 272 839 490 39 834.57 31 288.58
2020 296 832 871 43 337.60 33 623.74

The number of people can obtain food from those traditional methods for next 25 years

= 33 623.74 x 106 / 146
= 230 299 589 people.

3.4 Possibilities of Increasing Food Production.

3.4.1 Opening new land

The total land area of Indonesia is 181 157 000 ha, where 41 971 00 ha of it is agricultural land. The current cultivated land area is 13 045 000 ha, so that there is still about 17 126 000 ha land available to be opened and to be cultivated. From Table 3.2, there was an increment in the area paddy harvested from 1985 to 1995. In the future, there is still remain possibilities to increase food production by opening new land.

3.4.2 Increasing the cropping intensity

Increasing the cropping intensity can be done by some means:

1) Increasing the number of cropping per year.
2) Increasing the yield per crop.

1) Increasing the number of cropping per year.

Indonesia is a tropical country, where the weather is suitable for rice growing all over the year. The critical factor for increasing the number of cropping is water availability.

In many regions of Java island, there are irrigation infrastructures to supply water needed by the farmer to plant rice in dry seasons. On those regions, in one year, farmer usually grow rice twice and plant another crop for the third, except if they have another more valuable commodity to be planted.

If water is available, rice varieties with short age encourages the possibilities to grow more number of crop per year.

Because there are still a lot of regions having no irrigation infrastructures, there still lays the possibilities to increasing the number of cropping per year by build up new irrigation infrastructures.

2) Increasing the yield per crop.

Increasing the crop yield can be implemented by using high yield varieties, better field practices and management such as using better machines for land preparation, planting, plant protection, cultivation and harvesting, or by using more agricultural input such as fertilizer.

In the case of Indonesia, there is still wide possibilities to increase food production by increasing yield because crop yield of many paddy fields is still not gaining the optimum value.

3.5 Estimated Maximum Agricultural Production Potential by Using The Best Available Technology

By using the best available technology, assume that,

a. cultivated area are irrigated.
b. crop varieties with high yield.
c. better crop management.
d. application of fertilizer and good pest control.

Best known now, the highest yield of rice is 5.269 ton/ha, which is the highest yield rate by province in Indonesia at 1995 (Bali Province).

Assume that the average yield by using best available technology was as the same value as the annual yield rate in Bali Province. With total area harvested in 1995 = 11 436 764 ha (Table 3.1), the production in 1995 with this yield rate will

= 5.269 ton/ha x 11 438 764
= 60 270 848 ton,

If we assume that he annual growth of area of paddy harvested for the next 25 year maintained the same value as that of from 1985 to 1995, than we can predict the paddy production for the next 25 years.

The increase of paddy harvested area from 1985 to 1995

= 11 438 764 / 9 902 213
= 1.15517

The annual growth can be calculated from the equation

(1 + x)10 = 1.15517
log (1 + x)10 = log 1.15517
10 log (1 + x) = log 1.15517
log (1 + x) = log 1.15517 / 10

= 0.0062647

(1 + x) = 100.00662647

= 1.0145

x = 0.0145

= 1.45 %

Area of paddy harvested for next 25 years will

= (1.0145) 25 x 11 438 764
= 1.434 x 11 438 764
= 16 393 828 ha.

And the production of paddy by this time will

= 5.269 ton/ha x 16 393 828 ha
= 86 379 080 ton.

If we make an assumption that the main food of the population is only rice, the annual rice demand is equal with total population times energy requirement per capita per year divided by the caloric content per kg rice.

Assume that food demand equal 146 kg of paddy per head per year. Then the increasing of demand and supply of paddy from 1995 to 2020 is listed in Table 3.5 below.

Table 3.5 Estimation of paddy production and demand from 1995 to 2020 using best available technology

Year

Population
(1.7 % growth rate)

Rice demand
(x 1000 ton)

Production
(1.45 % growth)
(x 1000 ton)

1995 194 754 800 28 434.20 60 270.85
2000 211 881 449 30 934.69 64 769.05
2005 230 514 208 33 655.07 69 602.98
2010 250 785 524 36 614.69 74 797.67
2015 272 839 490 39 834.57 80 380.06
2020 296 832 871 43 337.60 86 379.08

The number of people can obtain food from those methods for next 25 years

= 86 379.08 x 106 / 146
= 591 637 550 people.

IV. FUTURE PLANS FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS

4.1 Plan-1: The same percentage of People Working in Agriculture, Preserving the same overall standard of Live

Total population of Indonesia (1995) = 194 754 800
Working people for 1995 year = 80 110 100

People work in agriculture = 35 233 270

= 18.09 % of total population.

Growth rate (1995) = 1.7 % per year.

Cultivated area at 1995 = 41 971 000 ha
Growth of cultivated area = 2.3 % per year
Human power = 0.0746 kW/person.

Table 4.1 Estimation of human power available in agriculture for the next 25 years for Plan-1.

Year Population
(1.7 % growth rate)

Population in agriculture
(18.09%)

Cultivated area
(2.3 % annual growth rate)

Human power available
(kW/ha)
1995 194 754 800 35233270 41971000 0.062624
2000 211 881 449 38331668 47024857 0.060809
2005 230 514 208 41702537 52687265 0.059047
2010 250 785 524 45369840 59031500 0.057335
2015 272 839 490 49359643 66139665 0.055674
2020 296 832 871 53700308 74103746 0.054060

4.2 Plan-2: To Provide the Increased Food Production Required with a Smaller Percentage of People Working in Agriculture. Thus Freeing People to Work in Other Sectors of The Economy.

The rate of reducing people working in agriculture is estimated from employment data from 1980 to 1995.

Table 4.2 Population and Type of Activity 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1995

Year 1980 1985 1990 1995
Population
(in thousands)
146,776.5 164,047.0 179,247.8 194,754.8
Population 10+ 104,352.6
(100.00)
120,380.0
(100.00)
135,039.6
(100.00)
152,515.0
(100.00)
Labor Force 52,421.2 63,825.6 73,913.7 86,361.3
Labor Force
Participation Rate
(50.23) (53.02) (54.73) (56.62)
Working 51,553.1
(98.34)
(100.00)
62,457.1
(97.86)
(100.00)
71,570.0
(96.83)
(100.00)
80,110.1
(92.76)
(100.00)
Unemployment Rate (1.66) (2.14) (3.17) (7.24)
Working in agriculture 28,834,041
(55.93)
34,141,809
(54.66)
35,747,447
(49.95)
35,233,270
(43.98)
Percentage people working in agriculture to total population 19.64 20.81 19.94 18.09

Source: Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), 1996.

Percentage at 1980 = 19.64 %, at 1995 = 18.09 %.
Total reduction for that periode =18.09 / 19.64

= 0.921

The rate of reducing people in agriculture,
(1 – x)15 = 0.921
log (1 – x)15 = log 0.921
15 log (1 – x) = log 0.921
log (1 – x) = log 0.921 / 15

= – 0.00238269

(1 – x) = 10- 0.002382696

= 0.99453

x = 0.00547

= 0.547 %

Table 4.3 Estimation of human power available in agriculture for the next 25 years for Plan-2.

Year Population
(1.7 % growth rate)
People in agriculture (%) Population in agriculture Cultivated area (2.3 % annual growth rate) Human power available (kW/ha)
1995 194754800 18.09 35231143 41971000 0.06262
2000 211881449 17.60 37291135 47024857 0.059158
2005 230514208 17.12 39464032 52687265 0.055877
2010 250785524 16.66 41780868 59031500 0.05280
2015 272839490 16.21 44227281 66139665 0.049885
2020 296832871 15.77 46810544 74103746 0.047124

4.3 Agricultural Inputs Requirement for Each Plan

The substantial difference between Plan-1 and Plan-2 is about the human power available for agricultural operations. Power available for agricultural works in Plan-1 slightly higher than that in Plan-2.

The comparison of the number of people working in agriculture and the amount of human power available per unit area for the two conditions is presented on Table 4.4.

Table 4.4 Number of people working in agriculture and amount of human power available

Plan 1 Plan 2
Year Population in agriculture (18.09%) Human power available (kW/ha) Population in agriculture Human power available (kW/ha)
1995 35 233 270 0.062624 35 233 270 0.06262
2000 38 331 668 0.060809 37 291 135 0.059158
2005 41 702 537 0.059047 39 464 032 0.055877
2010 45 369 840 0.057335 41 780 868 0.05280
2015 49 359 643 0.055674 44 227 281 0.049885
2020 53 700 308 0.054060 46 810 544 0.047124

On Plan-1, the overall standard of living is preserved the same, thus can be assumed that the composition of agricultural inputs was remain the same with the present situation.

By assume that the total power input requirement for paddy growing is 0.254 kW/ha and assume that the composition of power input is maintained the same as at the starting point, then the composition of power machinery and other agricultural inputs for the next 25 years can be estimated.

Nf = Ns x %f/%s x r

where
Nf = number of machinery at any point
Ns = number ofmachinery in use at starting point
%s = percentage at the starting point
%f = percentage at any point
r = annual growth rate of cultivated area

Table 4.5 Estimation of power requirement for Plan 1

Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Power required 0.254 0.254 0.254 0.254 0.254 0.254
Human number 35233270 38331668 41702537 45369840 49359643 53700308
Human power 0.062624 0.060809 0.059047 0.057335 0.055674 0.054060
Percentage 24.66 23.94 23.25 22.57 21.92 21.28
Other
Power Input
75.34 76.06 76.75 77.43 78.08 78.72

For Plan 2, it is assumed that power requirement per ha increases with annual rate = 0.8 %.

Table 4.6 Estimation of power requirement for Plan 2

Year 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Power required 0.266 0.277 0.289 0.3 0.312 0.325
Human number 35233270 37291135 39464032 41780868 44227281 46810544
Human power 0.063 0.059 0.056 0.053 0.05 0.047
Percentage 23.54 21.36 19.33 17.6 15.99 14.5
Other Power Input 76.46 78.64 80.67 82.4 84.01 85.5

Table 4.7 Agricultural input for Plan 1

Year 1989 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1 Human power 35233270 38331668 41702537 45369840 49359643 53700308
2 Cow 725712 831798 839747 855463 879194 911169 952047
3 Buffalo 188841 216446 218515 222605 228780 237100 247737
4 Horse 8311 9526 9617 9797 10069 10435 10903
5 Power tiller 20541 23544 23769 24214 24886 25791 26948
6 Mini tractor 2740 3141 3171 3230 3320 3441 3595
7 Small tractor 796 912 921 938 964 999 1044
8 Medium tractor 303 347 350 357 367 380 397
9 Big tractor 1051 1205 1217 1240 1274 1320 1379
10 Knapsack sprayer 9361 10729 10832 11035 11341 11753 12280
11 Power sprayer 2063 2365 2388 2433 2500 2591 2707
12 Swing fog 382 438 442 450 462 479 500
13 Paddy thresher 126539 145037 146423 149163 153301 158876 166004
14 Paddy dryer 3297 3779 3815 3886 3994 4139 4325
15 Paddy cleaner 34457 39494 39871 40617 41744 43262 45203
16 Rice polisher 10912 12507 12627 12863 13220 13701 14316
17 Rice milling unit 61652 70664 71339 72674 74690 77406 80879
18 Huller 9465 10849 10953 11158 11468 11885 12418
19 Engelberg 4319 4950 4997 5091 5232 5422 5665
20 Irrigation pump 12364 14171 14306 14574 14978 15523 16219

Table 4.8 Agricultural input for Plan 2

Year 1989 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
1 Human power 35233270 38331668 41702537 45369840 49359643 53700308
2 Cow 725712 844164 881140 943477 1031889 1150637 1305807
3 Buffalo 188841 219664 229286 245507 268513 299413 339790
4 Horse 8311 9668 10091 10805 11818 13178 14955
5 Power tiller 20541 23894 24941 26705 29207 32568 36960
6 Mini tractor 2740 3187 3327 3562 3896 4344 4930
7 Small tractor 796 926 967 1035 1132 1262 1432
8 Medium tractor 303 352 367 393 430 479 544
9 Big tractor 1051 1223 1277 1367 1495 1667 1892
10 Knapsack sprayer 9361 10889 11366 12170 13310 14842 16844
11 Power sprayer 2063 2400 2505 2682 2933 3271 3712
12 Swing fog 382 444 463 496 542 604 685
13 Paddy thresher 126539 147193 153640 164509 179925 200630 227686
14 Paddy dryer 3297 3835 4003 4286 4688 5227 5932
15 Paddy cleaner 34457 40081 41837 44797 48995 54633 62001
16 Rice polisher 10912 12693 13249 14186 15515 17300 19633
17 Rice milling unit 61652 71715 74856 80152 87663 97751 110933
18 Huller 9465 11010 11492 12305 13458 15007 17031
19 Engelberg 4319 5024 5244 5615 6141 6848 7771
20 Irrigation pump 12364 14382 15012 16074 17580 19603 22247

4.4 Changes to be Required for each plan to succeed

There are some general changes required for both plans to succeed, and some specific changes required for each plan.

General changes will be,

a. Pricing Policy
b. Procurement of agricultural input
c. Human labor capability
d. Development of Irrigation Infrastructures
e. Agricultural machinery Industry
f. Agricultural Land Utilization

4.4.1 Pricing Policy

To encourage the increase of food production, the raw food price must be considerably increased. At the present level of raw food price, food grower get a very little income for his production. When we consider about the small land size ownership in Indonesia, thus means thet most of the farmers are literally poor men.

Rising the raw food price means to give the farmer more income and to encourage more food production.

4.4.2 Procurement of Agricultural Input

At the present farmer income level, the price of most agricultural inputs are still too costly for most of them. To overcome this problem, the Government must give financial aids to the farmers to buy those costly inputs.

4.4.3 Human Labor Capability

Training and education thriugh extension worker service and other means should be conducted more seriousle and more intensively to give the farmers enough knowledge on technological and managerial.

4.4.4 Development of Irrigation Infrastructures

As a tropical country, there is only a little change in overall climate throughout the year in Indonesia. The large portion of change is on water availability. In rainy seasons, water is abundant, while in the dry seasons farmer rely their water demand to grow crop from irrigation scheme or from ground water. If water is available throughout the year, agricultural production can be increased by growing more crops per year. In order to obtain more food, the development of more irrigation infrastructures is very important.

4.4.5 Agricultural machinery Industry

Production of appropriate agricultural machinery should be increased to fulfil its demand due to agricultural development in the future.

4.4.6 Agricultural Land Utilization

A suitable plan and a set of law must be made out to conserve the productive lands from non agricultural utilizations.

Change for Plan-2: Development of non agricultural Industry

By the increase of the population, more labour-force will come to seek a job. Agricultural sector will not be able to utilize all those coming labour-force. Therefore, many non agricultural industries must be established in the future along with many so called “informal sectors”. The coming non agricultural industries can be large ones or home scale ones.

Perihal Pak Tas
manusia

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